1. ISIS는 누구이며 왜 급부상하는가?

■ 이제껏 본적 없는 새로운 이슬람 지하디스트 세대로서(제 3세대 지하디스트) 이라크 말리키 정부가 부추킨 종파 분열을 이용하여 세를 확대하고 있다.

■ 이들 제 3세대 지하디스트는 국내 무슬림 독재자를 공격대상으로 삼았던 제 1세대, 미국과 서구를 적으로 삼았던 제 2세대와 여러 면에서 구별된다.

■ 제 3세대 지하디스트 ISIS는,

1) 자신의 트위터 앱을 개발할 정도로 SNS를 즐겨 사용하며

2) 연간 회계보고서를 발간하는 비즈니스 마인드를 보이고

3) 홍보 비디오나 선전물을 영어로 제작하거나 반드시 영어자막을 포함시키면서 전 세계를 타겟 청중으로 삼고

4) 조직원의 상당수가 유럽과 미국인이며 (이들 외국인은 자살폭탄 대원으로 활동하고 있음)

5) 알 카에다(대표적인 제 2세대 지하디스트)가 절연을 선언했을 정도로 폭력적이고 잔인하며

6) 주된 공격대상은 세속주의 독재자도 서구도 아닌 시아파나 타종교인이며 따라서 적어도 당분간은 이라크와 시리아의 장악과 세 확산에 집중할 것이다.

■ 현재 ISIS는 종파 학살을 자행하며 이라크의 40% 가량을 장악한 상태이고 이라크 북부의 쿠르드 자치지역마저 공격하고 있다. 그러나 이들의 약진은 지속되지는 않을 것이다.

■ 왜냐면,

1) ISIS의 약진은 사담 정권 하의 관료, 군부와의 연합 때문에 가능했다. 그러나 이 둘의 연합은 말리키 정부라는 공동의 적 때문에 일시적으로 유지되는 것뿐이며, 아랍 사회주의자 바아트 당원들과 급진 교조적 지하디스트는 태생적으로 공존하기 매우 어렵다.

2) 최근 급속도로 높아진 ISIS의 화력 역시 이들 급진 지하디스트의 자체 능력이 아닌 이라크 정부군이 ISIS를 피해 퇴각하면서 버리고 간 최신식 미국산 무기들로 무장했기 때문이다.

 

2. 쿠르드 자치지역이 왜 이토록 중요한가?

■ 쿠르드 자치정부(KRG) 만이 ISIS의 약진과 확산을 막고 현 위기의 판도를 바꿀 수 있는 유일한 세력이다.

■ 현 위기의 원인 제공자인 말리키가 이끄는 이라크 중앙정부와 달리 KRG는 보다 민주적이고 타종교, 종파에 관대하며, 보다 투명한 정부 조직과 제도 하에 국가 역량도 뛰어나다. 쿠르드 자체 군대인 페쉬메르가 역시 군사력과 전문성 면에서 이라크 정부군과 비교할 수 없을 만큼 우수하다. 게다가 쿠르드 자치지역은 상당한 경제적 잠재력 역시 보유하고 있다.

■ 1차 세계대전 이후 오스만제국이 몰락하면서 쿠르드 족은 독립국가도 세우지 못한 채 이라크, 이란, 시리아, 터키로 뿔뿔이 흩어져 갖은 박해를 받아왔다. 1991년 걸프 전에서 미군이 이라크 북부에 비행금지구역을 설정하면서 이라크 쿠르드 거주지역이 처음으로 전략적 가치를 인정받았고 2003년 이라크 전을 통해 자치정부 수립의 가능성이 현실화됐다.

 

3. ISIS가 쿠르드 자치지역마저 공격하는 현재 위기 상황이 한국에게 미치는 영향은 무엇인가?

■ 한국은 지난 십여 년 동안 쿠르드 자치지역에 인적, 물적으로 상당한 투자를 했고, 경제 이해관계를 뛰어넘는 상호간 높은 신뢰를 쌓아왔다.

■ 2003년 국내의 거센 반대여론 속에 노무현 정부가 이라크 파병을 결정하고 우리 자이툰 부대가 4년이 넘도록 활동했던 곳이 쿠르드 자치지역이다. 당시 한국은 미국, 영국에 이어 3번째로 많은 군대를 보낸 나라였다. 자이툰 부대는 쿠르드 자치지역의 수도인 아르빌에 머물며 쿠르드 자치지역의 국가건설과 평화유지, 한국의 국제적 지위 향상, 한국-쿠르드 간 우호관계 증진을 성공적으로 이뤄냈다.

■ 쿠르드 족이 경험해온 나라 없는 설움과 이로 인한 탄압은 한국이 외세에 의해 겪은 고통스러운 역사와 맥락을 같이 하기에 둘 사이의 돈독한 관계는 더욱 특별하게 회자되기도 한다.

■ 2007년 한국석유공사가 원유탐사 프로젝트를 위해 처음으로 쿠르드 자치지역에 투자를 시작했고 2014년 아르빌 하울러 광구에서 창사이래 지분 기준으로 최대 규모의 유전을 확보했다. 한국가스공사 역시 가스전을 개발 중이다. 포스코는 화력발전소, 쌍용건설은 정수처리장 건설 프로젝트에 참여 중이며 인천공항공사는 도훅(Dohuk) 신공항건설 사업을 관리 중이다.

■ 나아가 이라크 남부에 현지법인이나 지사를 두고 있는 우리 기업들의 지분 역시 현 KRG가 처한 위기와 무관하지 않다. 만약 ISIS가 쿠르드 자치지역을 장악 한다면 바그다드와 남부 지역으로 세력을 순식간에 확장해가는 것은 시간문제이기 때문이다.

 

4. 현 이라크 위기 상황에서 한국정부가 해야 할 일은 무엇인가?

■ 쿠르드 자치지역과 KRG에 시급한 인도주의적 지원과 외교적 지원을 아끼지 말아야 한다.

■ 첫째, 인도적 지원의 일환으로 난민 보호를 위한 음식, 약품과 더불어 지원금을 조속히 제공해야 한다. 소수파 야지드 족뿐만 아니라 순니, 시아 구분 없이 수많은 민간인들이 ISIS와 시아파 민병대를 피해 상대적으로 안전한 쿠르드 자치지역으로 밀려들어오고 있다. 한국도 미국 못지않게 KRG에 대해 오래된 유대관계와 경제적 이해관계가 있으므로 결정적인 시점에 쿠르드 편에 서는 정책적 결단을 생각해보아야 한다. 국제사회의 책임 있는 중견국임을 내세우는 한국의 대 시리아 인도적 지원금 약속 규모가 천만불에 그치고 있다. 이는 다른 중견국 MIKTA (멕시코, 인도네시아, 한국, 터키, 호주) 회원국인 호주와 터키에 비해 한참 밑도는 규모이다.

■ 둘째, 빠른 시일 내에 외교부 장관이나 고위공직자가 아르빌을 방문해 KRG에 대한 한국 정부의 지지를 보여주는 외교적 방법도 효과적이다. 지난 주 프랑스 외무장관이, 3주 전 반기문 UN 사무총장이 아르빌을 방문해 KRG에 대한 지원을 강조한 것이 대대적으로 보도된 사실은 시사하는 바가 크다. 한국은 중동에서 자신의 경제이익 찾기에만 급급하다는 불명예에서 벗어나야 하고, 독자적인 중견국의 기개를 제대로 보여줘야 하는데 지금이 참으로 좋은 기회이다.

 

The radical jihadists of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) have wrought terror and destruction across the Middle East, bringing already-failing states to the brink of collapse. In recent days, ISIS, or simply the ‘Islamic State’ as they now call themselves, has pushed north and west in Iraq towards the heart of Iraqi Kurdistan, executing anyone they consider a heretic and imposing an extreme interpretation of Islamic law wherever they go. United States President Obama’s announcement on August 8 of limited airstrikes to thwart the ISIS advance and distribute humanitarian aid shows its commitment to protecting Iraq and Kurdistan. Indeed, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is the only formidable shield against the ISIS onslaught. This Asan Issue Brief argues that the Korean government also has a stake in defending the people of Iraq, and particularly those of Iraqi Kurdistan, due to its long term close ties and investment. Thus, humanitarian and diplomatic support to the KRG by Korea is urgently needed.

Q. Who is ISIS and what explains its sudden rise?

A totally new generation of Islamic jihadists taking advantage of the power vacuum created by the sectarian policies of the Maliki government.

ISIS is qualitatively different from the jihadists of the past, who fought against either the “near enemy” of authoritarian Arab regimes or the “far enemy” of the United States and the West. Different from Al-Qaeda, from which it was recently disowned, ISIS heralds a new chapter in the evolution of extreme jihadism. They actively use social networking services such as Twitter, publish financial reports like a profit-seeking company, and release manifestos and narrated videos in fluent English to reach a global audience. Its fighters hail from all over the world, including Europeans, Americans, Central Asians, and even Uighurs. While Al-Qaeda recruited foreign fighters to help them in their global jihad against the West, ISIS remains—at least for the time being—firmly focused on sectarian cleansing in Iraq and Syria. It has no qualms about using foreigners as suicide bombers in even minor tactical operations.

Years of sectarian policies pursued by the Iraqi government of Nouri Al-Maliki have severely marginalized Iraq’s Sunni community, creating a fertile breeding ground for militancy and insurgency. These groups, which include tribal militias, secular Baathists from the old regime, and radical Sunni Islamists, have a range of grievances against the current government. The battlefield success of ISIS is due to this broad coalition of Sunni groups. Their capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, in June set off a major humanitarian crisis as hundreds of thousands of Iraqis of all religious and ethnic backgrounds fled the ISIS onslaught.

ISIS has gone so far as to claim the mantle of the ‘Islamic State.’ It has its own police force, consumer protection agency, and conducts seminars on Islamic law to educate the population. In doing so, ISIS is a quasi-state actor bent on territorial conquest. Its manifestos frequently invoke overturning the infamous Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916 which divided the Ottoman Empire between France and the United Kingdom into present-day Iraq and Syria. Scenes of ISIS fanatics proudly carrying out amputations for religious offences, mass executions of captured soldiers, and decapitating victims and leaving their heads on spikes in public squares should leave no illusion as to their organizational principles.

However, contained within ISIS’s success are also the seeds of its own downfall. Its Sunni coalition partners, without whom ISIS could not have orchestrated complex battlefield maneuvers, have begun to realize that they may have made a pact with the devil. The former Baathist officials are Arab socialists and cannot tolerate the enforcement of a hard-line interpretation of Islamic law by ISIS. This broad but fragile coalition will not last long. Moreover, ISIS victories so far owe less to its incredible strength than to the embarrassing weakness of the Iraqi military.

Q. Why is the fighting in Iraqi Kurdistan a game-changer?

The Kurds are the only ones capable of stopping ISIS and, in the long term, they may become an independent state.

Unlike the Iraqi central government, on which the U.S. spent tremendous amounts of money without success, the KRG possesses a more professionalized military, institutional capacity, and political accountability. As ISIS forces approached, thousands of Iraqi troops fled Mosul and other northern cities, leaving behind their American-provided weapons, uniforms, and vehicles, not to mention hundreds of thousands of civilians. However, the professionalism of the peshmerga, the Kurdish military forces, has been in stark contrast to the collapse of the Iraqi army. If ISIS is able to conquer Iraqi Kurdistan, it will only be a matter of time before its forces once again turn to Baghdad and further south, potentially leading to the total breakdown of Iraq as a state. The Kurds are the last military force standing between ISIS and all-out civil war.

Indeed, over the past decade, the Kurds have successfully governed their region even as the rest of Iraq slide into sectarianism and civil war, proudly pointing out that not a single coalition soldier died in Kurdistan during the war, nor was a single foreigner kidnapped. Also, in a part of the world where democracy remains rare, the Kurds strive towards political representation and inclusive government. The people are secular yet religiously tolerant, with Muslims, Christians and many other denominations living side-by-side. In addition, their economic potential is also significant, with estimates that Iraqi Kurdistan could possess up to 45 billion barrels of oil in mostly untapped oil fields. In sum, the success of a viable Kurdistan is thus crucial to the future of Iraq as a whole.

The current fighting in Iraqi Kurdistan is also a game-changer in the long term in that it may lead to the creation of a powerful, independent Kurdistan. If ISIS is eventually defeated, the KRG will wield enormous strategic influence in the future of Iraq. It could pave the way for the de-facto partition of Iraq as a sovereign state, fracturing the country along Kurdish, Sunni Arab, and Shiite Arab lines. The regional strategic environment will also be transformed, as Turkey grapples with its own Kurdish minority who may either seek greater autonomy or try to formally join the newly-independent Kurdistan. Ultimately, an independent Iraqi Kurdistan is likely to change not only its own borders, but the entire map of the Middle East.

Q. How does the current conflict in Iraq affect Korea?

Korea has invested significantly in Iraqi Kurdistan over the past decade; and not just money.

The Korean government has played an instrumental role in supporting Iraqi Kurdistan’s development. Under President Roh Moo-hyun, Korea sent nearly 3,600 engineers, medics, and infantrymen as part of the Zaytun Division to assist in post-war reconstruction and security in Iraqi Kurdistan. In total, Korea ended up sending the third-largest contingent of foreign forces to Iraq behind the U.S. and United Kingdom. This was a highly controversial decision at the time, given the strong public opposition to Korean involvement in the Iraq War and the kidnapping and execution of a Korean national, Kim Sun-il. But rather than bow to public pressure, President Roh expended significant political capital to continue the deployment for the duration of his presidency. Ultimately, this proved to be the right decision given that Korea did not suffer any combat casualties during its deployment, it led to widespread recognition of Korea as a global player, and most importantly built sound ties between Korea and Iraqi Kurdistan.

Also, Korean businesses have long-recognized the potential of Iraqi Kurdistan. The Korea National Oil Corporation, a state-owned enterprise tasked with securing energy reserves, first entered Kurdistan in 2007 with oil exploration projects, securing major contracts in the Sangaw South and Hawler oil fields. The Korea Gas Corporation is developing gas fields in Mansuriyah and Akkas in lower Kurdistan, too. In terms of infrastructure development, POSCO has helped in the construction of a steam power plant in the Kurdish capital of Erbil while Ssangyong is currently building a water treatment plant in the major city of Sulaimaniyah. The Incheon International Airport authority is also supervising the construction of a new airport in Duhok, Kurdistan’s third-largest city.

Preventing an ISIS victory in Kurdistan is therefore of critical importance to Korea’s national interests. Moreover, Korea’s economic interests in southern Iraq are not immune to this conflict. Not surprisingly, this will be a nightmare for everyone in the region and around the world. That is why the U.S., Russia, and Iran are all seeking to respond to the magnitude of the ISIS threat. That is why Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey have also expressed support for Prime Minister Maliki’s resignation, given that that his policies facilitated the rise of ISIS and the current crisis in Iraq.

Q. What should Korea do?

Humanitarian assistance and diplomatic support to Iraqi Kurdistan.

As the U.S. takes military action in support of the Iraqi government and KRG, the Korean government must do more. The strong political, economic, and military ties that Korea has cultivated with Iraqi Kurdistan need to be strengthened during this critical hour. First, the Park Geun-hye administration needs to make a significant contribution in terms of humanitarian aid to help the KRG deal with the unfolding humanitarian disaster. Right now, over 40,000 Yazidis, a Kurdish religious minority, are trapped on Sinjar Mountain in northern Iraq after fleeing the ISIS attack. The past two months have seen a million Iraqi Shiites and Sunnis flee to the safety and security of Iraqi Kurdistan. The KRG is not equipped to manage such an influx of refugees. Korea can deliver food, medicine, and help with constructing temporary housing for these displaced peoples. The fact that it has only donated $10 million in Syria’s humanitarian crisis needs to be a wakeup call for Korea’s claims to be a so-called ‘middle power.’ In Iraqi Kurdistan, Korea has direct economic investments at stake, so it will be easier to convince lawmakers and taxpayers to provide a much higher level of support.

Second, the Korean government can show its diplomatic support for the KRG in the following ways. Korea can bolster support for the KRG by using its non-permanent seat at the UN Security Council to actively support the current U.S. military operation. It can also release a joint statement as part of the MIKTA Initiative with Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, and Australia. Similarly, a senior official might want to visit Erbil in the coming days. Last weekend’s visit by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius and the July 24 visit by United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon to Erbil were important shows of support for the KRG. Korea should do likewise. A visit by Minister Yun Byung-se at such a critical time would be an undeniable sign that Korea is not merely an economic animal seeking to extract Kurdish natural resources, but a true friend of Kurdistan.

The Kurdish people have been on a long, arduous journey towards reclaiming their independence. Their homeland was carved up by the great powers at the end of the First World War. They endured decades of colonial occupation and post-independence nation building during which their history, culture, and language were brutally suppressed. The world turned a blind eye to their struggle even as dictators committed unspeakable horrors against them, including the use of chemical weapons, particularly in Iraq. This is a powerful story that should resonate with Korea’s own painful history at the hands of foreign powers. As a responsible member of the international community who democracy and human rights, the Korean government should recognize the plight of the Kurdish people. Standing by them now is the first step.