The views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

• 
  
• 
  1
  

  Leon Panetta, “Sequestration’s Self-Inflicted Wounds,” The Washington Post, September 2, 2013; Weisgerber, Marcus, “Sequestration Could Chop $33B from DoD Investments,” DefenseNews, July 10, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  2
  

  “Statement on Strategic Choices and Management Review,” as delivered by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, July 31, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  3
  

  Robert Barro and Veronique de Rugy, Defense Spending and the Economy (Arlington, VA: George Mason University Mercatus Center, 2013); Peter W. Singer, “Separating Sequestration Facts from Fiction: Defense Sequestration and What It Would Do for American Military Power, Asia, and the Flashpoint of Korea,” Time Magazine, September 23, 2012.

  
  
  
• 
  4
  

  Note that this estimate is based on a Statement on Strategic Choices and Management Review by the Secretary of Defense.

  
  
  
• 
  5
  

  “Statement on Strategic Choices and Management Review,” Chuck Hagel; Claudette Roulo, “‘Painful’ Review Looked at Every Corner of DoD, Winnefeld Says.” American Forces Press Service, July 31, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  6
  

  Michael O’Hanlon, Healing the Wounded Giant: Maintaining Military Preeminence while Cutting the Defense Budget (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2013).

  
  
  
• 
  7
  

  Mackenzie Eaglen, “The Pentagon’s illusion of choice: Hagel’s 2 options are really 1,” American Enterprise Institute, August 1, 2013, http://www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy/defense/the-pentagons-illusion- of-choice-hagels-2-options-are-really-1/.

  
  
  
• 
  8
  

  Department of Defense, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21^st Century Defense, January 2012.

  
  
  
• 
  9
  

  “Statement on Strategic Choices and Management Review,” Chuck Hagel.

  
  
  
• 
  10
  

  Strategic Choices Exercise Outbrief, CSBA, May 29, 2013, http://www.csbaonline.org/publications/2013/05/ strategic-choices-exercise-outbrief/; Analysis of the DoD SCMR Options, CSBA, August 1, 2013, http://www.cs- baonline.org/2013/08/01/analysis-of-the-dod-scmr-options/.

  
  
  
• 
  11
  

  Defense Department Background Briefing on the Strategic Choices and Management Review in the Pentagon Briefing Room, US Department of Defense, July 31, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  12
  

  Michael J. Lostumbo et al., Overseas Basing of US Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2013); Report on Conventional and Nuclear Forces in the Western Pacific Region, letter to the Chairman of the Committee on Armed Forces, July 26, 2013.

  
  
  
  
  
• 
  13
  

  Center for Strategic & International Studies, US Force Posture Strategy in the Asia Pacific Region: An Independent Assessment (August 2012). It is important to note that the DoD’s current official position is that South Korea will not be impacted by the sequester. As noted by the Deputy Secretary of Defense Ash Carter during a public statement in June 2013—“[the DoD] exempted a number of other critical functions from sequester – for example, nuclear deterrence, our ability to respond immediately to crises. . . on the Korean Peninsula, for example, if that were to become necessary….” See: “Korea immune from U.S. military budget cuts: Pentagon official,” Korean Herald, June 13, 2013, http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130613000144.

  
  
  
• 
  14
  

  US Senate Committee on Armed Services, Inquiry into US Costs and Allied Contributions to Support the US Military Presence Overseas, April 15, 2013. This fìgure does not include more than US$2 billion in US military personnel costs as well as South Korea’s contributions for offsetting US costs.

  
  
  
• 
  15
  

  There are two plans in place to consolidate US forces on the Korean Peninsula into Camp Humphreys (40 miles south of Seoul) and Daegu. The Land Partnership Plan (LPP), which is projected to cost about US$3.2 billion, involves repositioning US forces from areas north of Seoul to Camp Humphreys and Daegu. The Yongsan Relocation Plan (YRP) with a heftier price tag of US$7 billion calls for moving US forces from the current base in Yongsan to Camp Humphreys.

  
  
  
• 
  16
  

  For a more thorough discussion on why the United States should increase its presence in the Asia-Pacifìc, see: Bruce Klingner and Dean Cheng, “America’s Security Commitment to Asia Needs More Forces.” Background- er, no. 2715, August 7, 2012; Dean Cheng and Bruce Klingner, “Defense Budget Cuts Will Devastate America’s Commitment to the Asia-Pacifìc,” Backgrounder, no. 2629, December 6, 2011.

  
  
  
• 
  17
  

  North Korea has become more daring and confìdent in its provocations against the South. Two most notable examples include the sinking of the Pohang-Class corvette named Cheonan near the Northern Limit Line on March 26, 2010 and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in November of that same year. In 2013, North Korea claims to have conducted a third nuclear test, which recorded the largest seismic activity to date. Finally, the successful launch of Kwangmyongsong in December 2012 marks an important turning point which suggests that North Korea is one step closer to developing a long-range payload capability. Finally, the latest report of possible activity at the Yongbyon facility suggests that North Korea has resumed production of plutonium.

  
  
  
• 
  18
  

  Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Annual Report to Congress, February 15, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  19
  

  From South Korea’s viewpoint, North Korea is a clear and present threat given its forward deployed arsenal of fìeld artillery and multiple rocket launchers (MRLs). Even though only a fraction of these may have the range to reach Seoul, most independent experts confìrm that North Korea possesses the capability to deliver as many as 20,000 shells an hour to downtown Seoul. See Chad O’Carroll, “North Korea’s Conventional Weapons Threat,” Korea Economic Institute, February 5, 2013, http://blog.keia.org/2013/02/north-koreas-convention- al-weapons-threat/.

  
  
  
• 
  20
  

  Brendan Nyhan, “The Green Lantern Theory of Sequestration,” Columbia Journalism Review, February 27, 2013; Brendan Greeley, “Lessons of Avoidance from Gramm’s ‘Pac-Man’ Budget Sequestration,” Bloomberg News, March 29, 2013; Laura Matthews, “Defense Spending Cuts 2013: Should Obama Worry Sequester Effects Could Shape His Legacy?” International Business Times, February 21, 2013.

  
  
  
• 
  21
  

  Peter Singer, “Separating Sequestration Facts from Fiction.”

  
  
  
• 
  22
  

  Bruce W. Bennett, “The Korean Defense Reform 307 Plan” Issue Brief, no. 8, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies, 2011; Bruce. Klingner, “South Korea: Taking the Right Steps Toward Defense Reform” Backgrounder, no. 2618, Heritage Foundation, October 19, 2011; Rhee Sang-Woo, “From Defense to Deterrence: The Core of Defense Reform Plan 307” Korea Chair Platform, CSIS, September 7, 2011.

  
  
  
• 
  23
  

  SIPRI Military Expenditure Database.

  
  
  
• 
  24
  

  Current schedule on the transfer of Operational Control (OPCON) should also be reconsidered with this principle in mind. As some critics have noted already, the possible dismantling of the Combined Forces Com- mand can send the wrong signal to North Korea that there may be a sizable cut in the number of US troops deployed to South Korea in case of an emergency (See 2006 SAIS US-Korea Yearbook).

  
  
  
• 
  25
  

  The logic, of course, dates back as far as Baron de Montesquieu, who noted in 1750 that “peace is the natural effect of trade.” See also Solomon W. Polacheck, “Conflict and Trade,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 24 (1980): 55-78; Solomon. W. Polache and Carlos Seiglie, “Trade, Peace and Democracy: An Analysis of Dyadic Dispute,” IZA Discussion Paper Series, no. 2170 (2006); Erik Gartzke, “Chapter 2: Economic Freedom and Peace,” in Economic Freedom of the World: 2005 Annual Report, ed. J. Gwartney, R. Lawson, and E. Gartzke (Toronto: The Fraser Institute, 2005).

  
  
  
• 
  26
  

  David W. Mabon, “Elusive Agreements: The Pacifìc Pact Proposals of 1949-1951,” Pacific Historical Review 57, no. 2 (1988): 147-177; Charles M. Dobbs. “The pact that never was: The pacifìc pact of 1949.” Journal of Northeast Asian Studies, no. 4 (1984): 29-42.

  
  
  
• 
  27
  

  “The US Approach to Regional Security,” Statement by US Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel at the Shangri-La Dialogue, 2013; Bonnie S. Glaser, “American Reassurance of Rebalance Encourages Cooperation and Progress at ADMM+” cogitASIA, Septmber 5, 2013, http://cogitasia.com/american-reassurance-of-rebalance-encour- ages-cooperation-progress-at-admm/; Brian Harding, “Don’t underestimate the ADMM+” PacNet #65R, CSIS, August 19, 2013, http://csis.org/publication/pacnet-65r-dont-underestimate-admm; Vibhanshu Shekhar, “ADMM+: Another Case of ‘Pretentious Diplomacy’?” IPCS, October 29, 2010, http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/admm-another-case-of-pretentious-diplomacy-3268.html; Chu Shulong, “The East Asia Summit: Looking for an Identity,” Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary, no. 6, February 2007.

  
  
  
• 
  28
  

  Choi Young Jong, “South Korea’s Regional Strategy and Middle Power Activism,” The Journal of East Asian Affairs 23, no. 1 (2009): 47-67.