How badly do South Koreans want nuclear weapons? The 2025 Asan Poll found a record 76.2% public support for acquiring an indigenous nuclear weapons capability and 66.3% support for the redeployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula. One of the main critiques of such findings is that the headline figures misrepresent the public’s true commitment to nuclear armament or redeployment. That is, support is expected to dramatically drop when people are asked to consider the potential costs of acquiring nuclear weapons. This Asan Issue Brief introduces the results of a series of conditions-based questions to test the robustness of South Korean public commitment to enhanced nuclear options. The five conditions include a willingness to face international sanctions, risk the withdrawal of U.S. forces from the Korean Peninsula, build storage facilities and conduct nuclear tests, increase defense cost-sharing with the United States, and host tactical nuclear weapons in their city or province.

The Issue Brief finds that a majority of the South Korean public is now committed to both nuclear armament and nuclear redeployment even in the face of four out of five potential cost conditions due to record-high threat perceptions and concerns about the U.S. security commitment. The high headline support for nuclear armament (76.2%) and nuclear redeployment (66.3%) means that even substantial drops in support no longer fall below majority support. However, the South Korean public is most sensitive to specific and tangible potential costs that have a direct impact on them, including hosting deployment of weapons as well as storage and testing facilities in their locality, whereas abstract and unspecified costs only have a modest impact on commitment.

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