On November 7, 2025, during a session of the Japanese House of Representatives Budget Committee, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae mentioned that if China uses force against Taiwan, such a scenario could be considered a “survival-threatening situation” (sonritsu kiki jitai) for Japan. Previous Japanese cabinets had avoided explicitly linking a Taiwan contingency to a survival-threatening situation, which is a prerequisite for the exercise of the right to collective self-defense. Takaichi thus became the first sitting Japanese prime minister to publicly suggest the possibility of exercising collective self-defense in the event of a Taiwan contingency.

Thus, the China-Japan conflict over the Taiwan issue is deeply intertwined with domestic political factors in both countries, their respective relations with the United States, and broader strategies to secure regional leadership beyond the bilateral relations between China, Japan, and Taiwan. For these reasons, a short-term resolution appears unlikely. If the China-Japan conflict over the Taiwan issue persists, it will have direct and indirect impacts on regional dynamics and South Korea’s national interests, extending beyond bilateral relations between China and Japan. Under these circumstances, the South Korean administration should focus on the following points to maximize national interests. First, South Korea should clearly establish and publicly announce its position on the Taiwan issue. Second, South Korea should actively utilize this principled stance as diplomatic leverage vis-à-vis China and Japan. Third, South Korea needs to meticulously analyze China’s pressure tactics against Japan and Japan’s countermeasures, and prepare responses to China’s economic coercion.

This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2026-06).

(‘‘대만문제’를 둘러싼 중일 갈등과 한국에의 시사점’)