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The Fall of Syria’s Hereditary Dictatorship and the Launch of an Islamist Transitional Government:
Analysis and Implications

Jang Ji-Hyang

732025.07.14

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  • 페이지 링크 복사 아이콘
  • 즐겨찾기 추가 아이콘
  • 페이스북 아이콘
  • 엑스 아이콘

In December 2024, the Islamist rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, also known as the Syrian Liberation Organization) seized the capital city of Damascus. As a result, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled into exile in Russia, his regime’s chief patron, leading to the dramatic collapse of Syria’s hereditary dictatorship. Syria, which was trying to return to the international community, collapsed almost overnight due to the limited military support from its backers, Iran and Russia, and the inherent vulnerabilities of its authoritarian system despite the regime’s tight control. Internal factors—such as the unpredictability of a rule that was iron-fisted yet deeply fragile, and structural weaknesses exacerbated by years of civil war—also played a significant role. In March 2025, Ahmed al-Shara, former leader of HTS, announced the formation of a transitional government, vowing to build a democratic system that guarantees minority rights, to embrace the diverse armed groups and to pursue “transitional justice” by breaking with the legacy of the Assad regime. Beyond these daunting domestic tasks, the transitional government must also contend with the intense power struggle among major external actors vying for influence inside Syria.

Meanwhile, South Korea has expressed a strong intention to actively participate in Syria’s reconstruction following the establishment of diplomatic relations with the new government. The Syrian transitional authorities, in turn, have shown keen interest in South Korea’s economic development model and reportedly requested to dispatch a working-level delegation to learn from Korea’s experience. The South Korean government has proposed cooperation in three main areas: sharing development know-how, providing humanitarian aid, and contributing to economic reconstruction. In May, following the decision by the European Union and the United States to lift sanctions on Syria, Seoul announced that it, too, would actively support the reconstruction process and facilitate Korean business entry into Syria. However, rather than focusing narrowly on corporate profit, it would be more prudent for Korea to emphasize sharing its development experience, designing administrative systems, and offering postwar humanitarian supportareas already identified by both the Syrian transitional government and the South Korean authorities as priorities.

 

This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2025-18).

 (‘시리아 세습 독재의 몰락과 이슬람주의 과도정부의 출범: 분석과 함의’)

 
Jang Ji-Hyang

Principal Fellow, Director

Dr. JANG Ji-Hyang is a Principal Fellow and director of the Center for Regional Studies at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies. Dr. Jang served as a policy advisor on Middle East issues to South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (2012-2018) and currently serves to Ministries of Industry, Justice, and Defense. Her research interests include political economy of the Middle East and North Africa, political Islam, comparative democratization, terrorism, and state-building. Dr. Jang is the author of numerous books and articles, including The Essential Guide to the Middle East (Sigongsa 2023 in Korean), The Arab Spring: Will It Lead to Democratic Transitions?(with Clement M. Henry (eds.), Palgrave Macmillan 2013), “Disaggregated ISIS and the New Normal of Terrorism” (Asan Issue Brief 2016), “Islamic Fundamentalism” (International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences 2008) and a Korean translation of Fawaz Gerges’ Journey of the Jihadist: Inside Muslim Militancy (Asan Institute 2011). Dr. Jang received a B.A. in Turkish studies and M.A. in political science from the Hankuk University of Foreign Studies and her Ph.D. in political science from the University of Texas at Austin.

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