In May 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump chose Saudi Arabia as the destination for his first overseas trip of his second term, also visiting Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), where he secured major achievements in investment agreements and arms sales. A series of economic, technology, and security “mega-deals” were announced, including unprecedented investment sums—$600 billion from Saudi Arabia, $1.2 trillion from Qatar, and $1.4 trillion from the UAE. Under the Trump administration’s transactional diplomacy, these Gulf states also pledged massive investments in Trump’s family business, further cementing the already close ties between Gulf royal families and the Trump family. Yet while drawing in Gulf oil money under the banner of “America First” economics and advocating an end to wars, the Trump administration in June abruptly decided to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities for the first time in history, directly intervening after the outbreak of the Israel–Iran war.

The second Trump administration’s dual strategy of closer alignment with the Gulf states and aggressive action against Iran significantly weakened Tehran and the broader Shia bloc, while elevating a new Middle Eastern order led by Israel and the Gulf oil monarchies. Meanwhile, China revealed the limits of its influence during the Israel–Iran war, standing in sharp contrast to the United States’ projection of overwhelming hard power. Having long sought to maximize their leverage amid U.S.–China strategic competition—pursuing reform gains, security guarantees, and enhanced regional stature—the Gulf states are likely to deepen cooperation with the United States, which remains their irreplaceable security provider. By contrast, Iran, facing the overwhelming offensive from the United States and Israel, exposed the fragility of its regime, compounded by elite infighting, popular disaffection, and the collapse of its authority as the leader of Shia Islam. Now mired in its greatest crisis since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979—and with even its proxy alliance, the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” neutralized—Iran has leaned on anti-American solidarity with the “Axis of Authoritarianism” (China, Russia, and North Korea). Yet with UN sanctions restored due to nuclear deal violations, these strategic limits are only expected to deepen.

This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2025-31).

('트럼프 2기 신중동 전략과 중동 안보구도의 재편’)