The U.S. arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro can be understood as an early indication of how the United States may employ limited uses of force as a tool to secure an advantage in great-power competition. The United States has framed the action not as regime change or a full-scale military intervention against a sovereign state, but as a law-enforcement operation targeting an individual accused of international crimes. It has further emphasized that the use of force was strictly limited and intended solely to protect U.S. personnel involved in the arrest operation.

This approach clearly distinguishes itself from the regime-change-centered intervention models the United States pursued in Iraq or Libya in the past. Rather than a long-term intervention aimed at democratization or state-building, this case focuses on the removal or prosecution of a specific criminal actor, suggesting the emergence of a new type of external intervention. It reflects a U.S. strategy that seeks to avoid the high costs and risks of large-scale military engagement by combining legal legitimacy with narrowly constrained military force to secure strategic interests.

At the same time, Maduro’s arrest illustrates the geographic expansion of strategic competition among the United States, China, and Russia. Over the past two decades, Venezuela has served as one of the most important strategic footholds for China, Russia, and Iran in Latin America, with these relationships forming the backbone of sanctions evasion and regime survival for Caracas. Nevertheless, the fact that the United States arrested Maduro sends a clear signal to the international community that external patronage—particularly cooperation with China and Russia—does not guarantee regime security. Notably, immediately following Maduro’s arrest, the United States issued similar warning messages to multiple actors, including Iran, Colombia, and Cuba. This suggests that the operation should be understood not as an exceptional, Venezuela-specific case, but as a precedent that could be applied repeatedly in the future.

This article is an English Summary of Asan Issue Brief (2026-02).

(‘미국의 마두로 대통령 체포 이후 국제질서 재편 전망’)