Foreword

Humanity has long grappled with the question of how to properly exercise “power” in both domestic and international politics to create a world that enjoys peace and stability. Our deep interest in global affairs and the international order is driven by a desire to understand whether the world we stand in today is truly moving in that direction.

The reshaping of the world order since the 2010s has diverse characteristics that cannot easily be distilled into a single overarching theme, given that it encompasses competition between the major powers and responses by other powers. Some define today’s world as a “New Cold War,” while others describe it as a competition among the dominant powers. In addition to traditional security issues, there is increasing recognition of emerging security and economic security issues, making international relations even more complex. Likewise, the international order has exhibited an intricate interplay of diverse features, rendering its future trajectory increasingly difficult to forecast. However, from whichever standpoint international affairs are viewed, certain common phenomena remain evident, including efforts by the dominant powers either to preserve an international order centered on themselves or seek to establish a new one, the absence of authoritative mechanisms for international coordination, and the dilemmas many countries face in making complex and difficult decisions. Consequently, it is important to systematically analyze these features to make sense of the current and future global landscape.

Since 2015, the Asan Institute for Policy Studies has selected overarching themes for its Asan International Security Outlook, aiming to analyze the trends in the international order, whose direction and nature are often difficult to assess. Past themes have included: Strategic Distrust (2015), New Normal (2016), Reset? (2017), Illiberal International Order (2018), Korea’s Choice (2019), Neo Geopolitics (2020), Era of Chaos (2021), Rebuilding (2022), Complex Competition (2023), Coalition Building (2024), and Renewal (2025). While each theme highlights distinct keywords, they collectively reflect the Institute’s painstaking efforts to adopt a multidimensional and comprehensive perspective in exploring the changing international order, its implications, and the strategies employed by individual countries and regions to address these changes.

The 2026 theme, “Anarchic World,” reflects these considerations. Over the past year, dominant powers such as the United States, China, and Russia all sought to shape an international order aligned with their respective ideals. Yet in doing so, each sustained damage to its leadership. With the start of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, the United States pursued drastic changes in foreign policy. This included tariff wars that spared neither competitors nor allies, pressure on allies for greater burden sharing, and “America First” promoted under the slogan “Make America Great Again (MAGA).” 

These changes shocked its partners and allies, leading to eroded trust in the United States. Russia has prolonged the war for over three years since its invasion of Ukraine and has forced enormous sacrifices in doing so. China also proclaimed free trade and multilateralism while simultaneously destabilizing the world through strengthened ties among authoritarian regimes. Together, they have contributed to the widening vacuum in global leadership.

Some describe the world ahead as one marked by the decline of U.S. hegemony and the rise of new powers, while others predict the revival of a loose Cold War system or a shift toward multipolarity. However, the phenomena we witnessed throughout 2025 foreshadow an Anarchic World, one defined by the strong preying on the weak and each state struggling for its own survival. How, then, will the current crisis in the international order be resolved? Will the dominant powers be able to recover their weakened international leadership? In the midst of these changes, what path will the remaining states pursue? And how long will this extremely uncertain world of anarchy continue?

Here on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia, countless strategic calculations will intertwine or collide. The second Trump administration in the United States will emphasize making “deals” in its alliances, while China may attempt to exploit South Korea as the “weak link” in ROK-U.S.-Japan security cooperation. North Korea is using the anarchic world to justify the “Two Hostile States Doctrine” and enhance its presence at both the regional and international levels. At the same time, Russia is seeking to assert its stake on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia. As these dynamics unfold, South Korea’s security environment is likely to become even more complex and challenging.

This report is the culmination of the Asan Institute’s efforts to assess the international security outlook in 2026 and to provide insights for how South Korea can respond effectively to these developments. We hope that this report will serve as a valuable resource for further analysis of the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and the international order in 2026. Finally, I would like to once again express my gratitude to the Asan Institute’s researchers and external authors for their unsparing efforts in contributing to the publication of this report.

Dr. YOON Young-kwan

Chairman, The Asan Institute for Policy Studies